From policemen to policies: what is the future for 2-h glucose? The Kelly West Lecture, 2000.

OBJECTIVE To describe the characteristics and vital prognosis of men with diabetes diagnosed by one fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentration > or =7.0 mmol/l, with diabetes diagnosed by one isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia (IPH) (FPG <7.0 mmol/l and a 2-h plasma glucose concentration > or =11.1 mmol/l), or with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study involved a cohort of 6,881 Caucasian nondiabetic men from the Paris Prospective Study, aged 44-55 years, who were followed for cause of death for 20 years. RESULTS Diabetes was diagnosed in 4.3% of the men (1.0% diabetes diagnosed by IPH), and IGT was diagnosed in 9% of the men. At baseline, the men with diabetes diagnosed by IPH had a lower cardiovascular risk profile than those with diabetes diagnosed by FPG, as did the men with IGT and a normal fasting glucose level (<6.1 mmol/l, IGT and normal fasting glucose), compared with men with impaired fasting glucose (6.1-6.9 mmol/l, IGT and impaired fasting glucose [IFG]). At 20 years of follow-up, all-cause and cancer death rates were higher in men with diabetes diagnosed by IPH than in men with diabetes diagnosed by FPG (55 vs. 44%, P < 0.1 and 31 vs. 17%, P < 0.01, respectively) but were not significantly different for coronary causes (6 vs. 11%). Men with IGT and normal fasting glucose also had significantly higher cancer death rates than men with IGT and IFG. CONCLUSIONS The most likely explanation for the high cancer and low coronary death rates is that men with diabetes diagnosed by IPH consumed alcohol; the men in this study drank 49 g of pure alcohol on average per day, equivalent to 0.6 l of wine. If these results are confirmed by other prospective studies, screening subjects for isolated postchallenge hyperglycemia may not be worthwhile.